Prediction of outcome from MRI and general movements assessment after hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy in low-income and middle-income countries: data from a randomised controlled trial.

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of neonatal MRI and general movements assessment (GMA) in predicting neurodevelopmental outcomes in infants with hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE).

Design: Secondary analyses of a randomised controlled trial (RCT).

Setting: Tertiary neonatal intensive care unit in India.

Methods: Fifty infants with HIE were included in an RCT of therapeutic hypothermia (25 cooled and 25 non-cooled). All infants underwent brain MRI at day 5, GMA at 10-15 weeks and outcome assessments including Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, third edition, at 18 months. Associations between patterns of brain injury, presence/absence of fidgety movements (FMs) and outcomes were assessed.

Results: Seventeen of 47 (36%) had adverse outcome (5 (21%) cooled vs 12 (52%) non-cooled, p=0.025). Eight infants died (four before an MRI, another three before GMA). Two developed severe cerebral palsy and seven had Bayley-III motor/cognitive composite score <85. Twelve (26%) had moderately/severely abnormal MRI and nine (23%) had absent FMs. The positive predictive value (95% CI) of an adverse outcome was 89% (53% to 98%) for moderate/severe basal ganglia and thalami (BGT) injury, 83% (56% to 95%) for absent/equivocal signal in the posterior limb of the internal capsule (PLIC) and 67% (38% to 87%) for absent FMs. Negative predictive values (95% CI) were 85% (74% to 92%) for normal/mild BGT injury, 90% (78% to 96%) for normal PLIC and 86% (74% to 93%) for present FMs.

Conclusions: Neonatal MRI and GMA predicted outcomes with high accuracy in infants with HIE. The GMA is a feasible low-cost method which can be used alone or complementary to MRI in low-resource settings to prognosticate and direct follow-up.

Trial Registration Number: CTRI/2013/05/003693.