AI Article Synopsis
- Ecological resilience refers to how much a system can handle disturbances while still returning to its original state, but it can also shift into a new state due to several smaller, combined impacts rather than just one major event.
- The study proposes a way to estimate resilience using average life expectancy and considers the variability in systems over time.
- By applying a fitting model to time series data, researchers can predict the average time it takes for a system to exit its stable state, providing new insights into potential critical transitions in ecological systems.
Article Abstract
Ecological resilience is the magnitude of the largest perturbation from which a system can still recover to its original state. However, a transition into another state may often be invoked by a series of minor synergistic perturbations rather than a single big one. We show how resilience can be estimated in terms of average life expectancy, accounting for this natural regime of variability. We use time series to fit a model that captures the stochastic as well as the deterministic components. The model is then used to estimate the mean exit time from the basin of attraction. This approach offers a fresh angle to anticipating the chance of a critical transition at a time when high-resolution time series are becoming increasingly available.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aay4895 | DOI Listing |
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