Ecological risk simulation assessment in marine ecosystems of the Arctic shelf.

This work elaborates an approach to the ecological risk model assessment in marine systems exposed to intense impacts and accompanying pollution. This approach was applied to the marine ecosystems of the Arctic shelf for two types of ecosystems, i.e. highly productive and low productive. The proposed method makes it possible to identify intervals in the increased ecological risk throughout the year and to calculate the allowable probability of anthropogenic impact depending on this. Variations in ecological risk throughout the year revealed periods of increased hazard and relatively favorable periods with a low risk probability. Performed calculation analysis refutes assumptions that in the Arctic shelf ecosystems with low productivity, a more intense anthropogenic impact is possible supposedly causing no significant damage. The proposed approach in the interdisciplinary aspect reveals possibility to harmonize ecological and economic requirements to ensure safe development of the marine system resources.