Relationship between multimorbidity, disease cluster and all-cause mortality among older adults: a retrospective cohort analysis.

Background: Previous studies have evaluated the association of multimorbidity with higher mortality, but epidemiologic data on the association between the disease clusters and all-cause mortality risk are rare. We aimed to examine the relationship between multimorbidity (number/ cluster) and all-cause mortality in Chinese older adults.

Methods: We conducted a population-based study of 50,100 Chinese participants. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the impact of long-term conditions (LTCs) on all-cause mortality.

Results: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 31.35% and all-cause mortality was 8.01% (50,100 participants). In adjusted models, the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of all-cause mortality risk for those with 1, 2, and ≥ 3 LTCs compared with those with no LTCs was 1.45 (1.32-1.59), 1.72 (1.55-1.90), and 2.15 (1.85-2.50), respectively (P < 0.001). In the LTCs ≥2 category, the cluster of chronic diseases that included hypertension, diabetes, CHD, COPD, and stroke had the greatest impact on mortality. In the stratified model by age and sex, absolute all-cause mortality was higher among the ≥75 age group with an increasing number of LTCs. However, the relative effect size of the increasing number of LTCs on higher mortality risk was larger among those < 75 years.

Conclusions: The risk of all-cause mortality is increased with the number of multimorbidity among Chinese older adults, particularly disease clusters.