Three-month early change in prostate-specific antigen levels as a predictive marker for overall survival during hormonal therapy for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer.

Objective: To date, there are no useful markers for predicting the prognosis of metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). We evaluated the effect of early changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels after androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) on castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) progression and overall survival (OS) in mHSPC patients.

Results: In 71 primary mHSPC patients treated with ADT, the median times to CRPC and OS were 15 months and 92 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis, a Gleason score of ≥ 8 (p = 0.004), an extent of disease value (EOD) of ≥ 2 (p = 0.004), and a 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level (p = 0.017) were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was feasible at 0.822. A 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level was an independent predictor of OS (p = 0.004). Three factors were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. A 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level correlated with a poor prognosis.