Modeling the early temporal dynamics of viral load in respiratory tract specimens of COVID-19 patients in Incheon, the Republic of Korea.

Objective: To investigate the duration and peak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 shedding as infectivity markers for determining the isolation period.

Methods: A total of 2,558 upper respiratory tract (URT) and lower respiratory tract (LRT) specimens from 138 patients with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease were analyzed. Measurements of sequential viral loads were aggregated using the cubic spline smoothing function of a generalized additive model. The time to negative conversion was compared between symptom groups using survival analysis.

Results: In URT samples, viral RNA levels peaked on day 4 after symptom onset and rapidly decreased until day 10 for both E and RdRp genes, whereas those in LRT samples immediately peaked from symptom onset and decreased until days 15.6 and 15.0 for E and RdRp genes, respectively. Median (interquartile range) time to negative conversion was significantly longer in symptomatic (18.0 [13.0-25.0] days) patients than in asymptomatic (13.0 [9.5-17.5] days) patients. The more types of symptoms a patient had, the longer the time to negative conversion.

Conclusions: The viral load rapidly changes depending on the time after symptom onset; the viral shedding period may be longer with more clinical symptoms. Different isolation policies should be applied depending on disease severity.