Background: Malnutrition is frequent in patients with cirrhosis and has been associated with poor prognosis. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was created to predict survival after Transjugular Intrahepatic Porto-systemic Shunt (TIPS) but lacks a nutritional parameter.
Aims: To evaluate the prognostic value of serum cholesterol in patients with cirrhosis undergoing TIPS and to develop a prognostic score to predict survival.
Methods: An explorative cross-sectional study was conducted of cirrhotic patients undergoing TIPS from 2008 until 2019. Exclusion criteria were liver transplantation or hepatocellular carcinoma before TIPS. Risk analysis was used to compare survival according to clinical and analytical data. The diagnostic performance of serum cholesterol added to MELD was evaluated and confirmed in an external validation cohort.
Results: The final cohort of 100 patients had a mean MELD score of 14±5 and cholesterol of 122±51 mg/dL. MELD (p < 0,05) and both cholesterol (p < 0,05) and low-density lipoprotein levels (LDL-C) (p < 0,05) were independent predictors of post-TIPS transplant-free survival with an optimal cut-off of 106 mg/dL for serum cholesterol. The combined MELD-cholesterol risk score improved diagnostic accuracy of each parameter separately, and this was confirmed in the external cohort.
Conclusion: Serum cholesterol and LDL-C are independent predictors of transplant-free survival in cirrhotic patients undergoing TIPS. The MELD-cholesterol score slightly improved prognostic accuracy.
Lay Summary: As an objective and easily measured indicator of both nutritional status and hepatic function, serum cholesterol could be useful to predict transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis undergoing TIPS. It can enable health care providers to identify high-risk patients and to optimize nutritional status before TIPS.
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