Background: There is a high incidence of leprosy among house-contacts compared with the general population. We aimed to establish a predictive model using these genetic factors along with epidemiological factors to predict leprosy risk of leprosy household contacts (HHCs).
Methods: Weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) encompassing genome wide association studies (GWAS) variants and five non-genetic factors were examined in a case-control design associated with leprosy risk including 589 cases and 647 controls from leprosy HHCs. We constructed a risk prediction nomogram and evaluated its performance by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling with 1000 resamples and a prospective design including 1100 HHCs of leprosy patients.
Finding: The C-index for the risk model was 0·792 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0·768-0·817), and was confirmed to be 0·780 through bootstrapping validation. The calibration curve for the probability of leprosy showed good agreement between the prediction of the nomogram and actual observation. HHCs were then divided into the low-risk group (nomogram score ≤ 81) and the high-risk group (nomogram score > 81). In prospective analysis, 12 of 1100 participants had leprosy during 63 months' follow-up. We generated the nomogram for leprosy in the validation cohort (C-index 0·773 [95%CI 0·658-0·888], sensitivity75·0%, specificity 66·8%). Interpretation The nomogram achieved an effective prediction of leprosy in HHCs. Using the model, the risk of an individual contact developing leprosy can be determined, which can lead to a rational preventive choice for tracing higher-risk leprosy contacts.
Funding: The ministry of health of China, ministry of science and technology of China, Chinese academy of medical sciences, Jiangsu provincial department of science and technology, Nanjing municipal science and technology bureau.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8176313 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2021.103408 | DOI Listing |
Publication Analysis
Top Keywords
Similar Publications
Pre-diagnosis and pre-treatment loss to follow-up and associated factors among patients with presumed tuberculosis and those diagnosed in Uganda.
BMC Health Serv Res
December 2024
School of Public Health, Department of Disease Control and Environmental Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
Background: Loss to follow-up (LTFU) of patients with presumed tuberculosis (TB) before completing the diagnostic process (pre-diagnosis LTFU) and before initiating treatment for those diagnosed (pre-treatment LTFU) is a challenge in the realization of the End TB Strategy. We assessed the proportion of pre-diagnosis and pre-treatment LTFU and associated factors among patients with presumed TB and those diagnosed in the selected health facilities.
Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study involving a review of routinely collected data from presumptive, laboratory and TB treatment registers from January 2019 to December 2022.
Atypical presentation of disseminated mycobacteriosis due to Mycobacterium avium in an aged cat.
Aust Vet J
December 2024
Centre for Veterinary Education, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
In cats, mycobacteriosis tends to present in a syndromic manner, with cases either being due to tuberculosis (TB) (in countries where TB is endemic), one of the "leprosy-like" diseases affecting the skin and subcutis, panniculitis caused by infection of subcutaneous tissues generally with rapidly growing Mycobacteria spp. or widely disseminated granulomatous disease, which is usually caused by members of the Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare complex (MAC). Disseminated MAC disease is rare, but when it occurs, usually develops in immunocompromised hosts with defective cell-mediated immunity.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF"The Diverse Faces of Hansen's Disease: A Pictorial Review".
J Am Acad Dermatol
December 2024
Sri Aurobindo Medical College and Post-Graduate Institute, Indore (M.P.), India, 453555.
Slit skin smear versus anti-phenolic glycolipid-I serology in diagnosis of leprosy: a cross sectional study.
Arch Dermatol Res
December 2024
Department of Dermatology, Medical Research and Clinical Studies Institute, National Research Centre, Giza, Egypt.
Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease which mainly affects the skin, nasal mucosa, and peripheral nerves. The aim of this study was to compare between the efficacies of serum anti-phenolic glycolipid 1 (APGL-I) level versus slit skin smear (SSS) in diagnosis of leprosy. This study involved 58 leprosy cases who were clinically examined, slit-skin smears were taken from all at diagnosis from four sites and APGL-I levels were seroassayed using ELISA.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPredictors of treatment delay among drug resistant tuberculosis patients in Uganda.
BMC Infect Dis
December 2024
National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Programme (NTLP), Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda.
Background: Drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) continues to be a significant global public health concern despite the availability of effective TB medicines. Equally, delayed DR-TB treatment initiation is associated with increased morbidity, amplified resistance, transmission risk and poor treatment outcomes. This study aimed to investigate treatment delays and identify predictors of delayed treatment initiation among DR-TB patients in Uganda.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFWant AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!