Dynamic relationships between different types of conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and protective behaviour: A four-wave panel study in Poland.

Rationale: Conspiracy theories about COVID-19 pose a serious threat to public health by providing false information and undermining official health recommendations. However, existing studies rarely employed longitudinal designs, precluding the determination of the directionality between endorsement of conspiracy theories and its societal consequences. Also, relatively little research examined whether the association between protective health behaviour and the endorsement of conspiracy theories is affected by the content of a given theory.

Methods: A four-wave longitudinal panel survey on the association between belief in a wide range of conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and protective behaviour was carried out on a representative sample of Polish citizens (T1 = 1130, T2 = 971, T3 = 818, T4 = 688). Analyses were performed using Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models.

Results: The results showed a reciprocal, bidirectional association between conspiracy mentality and protective behaviour. The same effect was also observed between protective behaviour and threat of authoritarianism. We did not find evidence that specific COVID-19 related conspiracy theories directly (and differently) predict within-person changes in protective behaviour over time.

Conclusions: Our results showed that the association between various conspiracy-related variables and anti-pandemic COVID-19 variables differs at within- and between-person levels. Changes in the adherence to pro-health measures were negatively predicted by conspiracy mentality and a feeling of threat that the solutions introduced by the government may limit civil rights. Specific conspiracy beliefs were significantly related to protective behaviour only at the between-person level.