Vaginal progesterone for prevention of preterm birth in asymptomatic high-risk women with a normal cervical length: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol.

Background: Preterm birth (PTB) is estimated to affect 14.9 million babies globally every year. Global rates of PTB continue to increase from 9.8 to 10.6% over a 15-year period from 2000 to 2014. Vaginal progesterone is commonly used by clinicians as a prevention strategy, with recent evidence affirming the benefit of vaginal (micronised) progesterone to prevent PTB in women with a shortened cervix (< 25 mm). Given the low incidence of a short cervix at mid-gestation in high-risk populations further evidence is required. The objective of this review is to determine if vaginal progesterone reduces spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) before 37 weeks in asymptomatic high-risk women with a singleton pregnancy with a normal mid-gestation cervical length.

Methods: Studies will be sourced from MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Register of Trials (CENTRAL) from their inception onwards with the search terms 'progesterone' and 'preterm birth'. Studies will be screened and included if they assess vaginal progesterone compared to placebo in women with a normal cervical length. The primary outcome will be sPTB < 37 weeks, with secondary outcomes of sPTB < 34 weeks. Two independent reviewers will conduct study screening at abstract and full text level, data extraction and risk of bias assessment with disagreements resolved by an experienced researcher. The Mantel-Haenszel statistical method and random effects analysis model will be used to produce treatment effect odds ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals.

Discussion: This review will assess the current body of evidence and provide clarity regarding the potential benefits and best practice of use of vaginal progesterone in asymptomatic women with high-risk singleton pregnancies and normal cervical length.

Trial Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020152051.