Impact of variceal eradication on rebleeding and prognosis in cirrhotic patients undergoing secondary prophylaxis.

Background: Endoscopic therapy has been widely applied to prevent variceal rebleeding, but data addressing the effect of endoscopic variceal eradication (VE) are lacking. We aimed to clarify the clinical impact of VE and reveal the long-term incidence and mortality of gastrointestinal rebleeding.

Methods: This prospective study included 228 cirrhotic patients who underwent secondary prophylaxis for variceal bleeding and achieved VE through a systematic procedure we proposed as endoscopic sequential therapy (EST). Rebleeding rates before and after VE were compared and cumulative incidence of rebleeding and mortality were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A logistic regression model and P for trend were used to investigate the optimal time limit for VE.

Results: During a median (interquartile range) follow-up duration of 33.0 (23.0-48.75) months, rebleeding was identified in 28 patients (12.3%) after VE and in 27 patients (11.8%) during endoscopic sessions. The cumulative incidence of rebleeding before and after VE was 8.4% and 1.8% at 6 months, and 14.9% and 4.0% at 1 year respectively (P<0.001). The long-term incidence of all-cause/variceal rebleeding following VE was 10.4%/9.1%, and 31.5%/23.5% at 2 and 5 years respectively. Eleven patients (4.8%) died and the 5-year mortality was 9.3%. VE achieved within 6 months was associated with fewer rebleeding events compared to VE achieved after 6 months (5.5% . 20.0%, P=0.002), while logistic regression revealed an overall increasing trend in the odds ratio of rebleeding ( patients with VE time ≤6 months) for patients with 6< VE time ≤12 months and VE time >12 months (P for trend <0.001).

Conclusions: VE further reduces rebleeding based on routine endoscopic prophylaxis and improves long-term prognosis. VE within 6 months seems to be the optimal timing and should therefore be advocated.