Prediction of Differential Pharmacologic Response in Chronic Pain Using Functional Neuroimaging Biomarkers and a Support Vector Machine Algorithm: An Exploratory Study.

Objective: There is increasing demand for prediction of chronic pain treatment outcomes using machine-learning models, in order to improve suboptimal pain management. In this exploratory study, we used baseline brain functional connectivity patterns from chronic pain patients with fibromyalgia (FM) to predict whether a patient would respond differentially to either milnacipran or pregabalin, 2 drugs approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of FM.

Methods: FM patients participated in 2 separate double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover studies, one evaluating milnacipran (n = 15) and one evaluating pregabalin (n = 13). Functional magnetic resonance imaging during rest was performed before treatment to measure intrinsic functional brain connectivity in several brain regions involved in pain processing. A support vector machine algorithm was used to classify FM patients as responders, defined as those with a ≥20% improvement in clinical pain, to either milnacipran or pregabalin.

Results: Connectivity patterns involving the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) individually classified pregabalin responders versus milnacipran responders with 77% accuracy. Performance of this classification improved when both PCC and DLPFC connectivity patterns were combined, resulting in a 92% classification accuracy. These results were not related to confounding factors, including head motion, scanner sequence, or hardware status. Connectivity patterns failed to differentiate drug nonresponders across the 2 studies.

Conclusion: Our findings indicate that brain functional connectivity patterns used in a machine-learning framework differentially predict clinical response to pregabalin and milnacipran in patients with chronic pain. These findings highlight the promise of machine learning in pain prognosis and treatment prediction.