Regional variations in prevalence and severity of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease in the United States.

Objectives: To evaluate geographic variation in the prevalence of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) in the US, including ADPKD at risk of rapid progression.

Methods: Claims data from the IBM MarketScan Commercial and Medicare Supplemental databases (01/16/2016-12/31/2017) were used to estimate the 2017 annual and 2016-2017 two-year prevalence of diagnosed ADPKD and ADPKD at risk of rapid progression in the US overall, and stratified by census regions and states. Risk of rapid progression was identified based on either: hypertension <35 years, hematuria <30 years, albuminuria, stage 2 chronic kidney disease (CKD) <30 years, stage 3 CKD <50 years, and stage 4/5 CKD or kidney transplant <55 years.

Results: Annual prevalence was estimated at 2.34 and two-year prevalence at 3.61 per 10,000 in the US. Across census regions, two-year prevalence per 10,000 was highest in the Northeast (4.14) and lowest in the West (3.35). Prevalence was significantly correlated with the proportion of individuals in urban areas ( = .34, one-sided  = .026). In 2017, 37.5% of patients were identified as being at risk for rapid progression, and this proportion was larger among patients in the South (42.1%,  < .001).

Conclusion: This estimate for ADPKD prevalence is consistent with previously reported national estimates, with regional variation suggesting that ADPKD might be under-diagnosed in rural areas with more limited access to care. More than one-third of ADPKD patients presented risk factors associated with rapid progression, highlighting the need for timely identification, as disease-modifying therapy may delay progression to end-stage renal disease.