Short-term and long-term survival of patients with gastric cancer.

Aim: The aim of this study was to apply the Bayesian mixture cure rate frailty model to determine the factors that influence short-term and long-term survival of patients with gastric cancer.

Background: Determining the risk factors of gastric cancer is currently considered very important, because the disease has become one of the most dangerous types of mortal cancers. Therefore, it is possible to determine the effective risk factors of short-term and long-term survival in patients through utilizing this model.

Methods: The present retrospective study was conducted on 339 gastric cancer patients whose data was recorded in hospitals of Kerman province, Iran, during 2001-2015. In the study, the Bayesian mixture cure rate frailty model was used to determine the effective factors of short-term and long-term survival in patients.

Results: In the present study, the event of interest occurred for 57.5% of patients. Over time, the survival rate of cancer patients reached its lowest point, approximately 0.3 at the end of study. According to the results of the present study, variables of chemotherapy (β=-0.35 (-0.75, -0.03) and OR=1.59 (1.08, 2.19)), morphology (β =-0.98(-1.45, -0.48) and OR=2.99 (1.78, 4.17)), and metastasis (β =0.42(0.10, 0.93) and OR=0.39(0.01, 0.84)) were identified as effective factors in short-term and long-term survival of patients.

Conclusion: The effective factors of long-term and short-term survival can be identified by utilizing the Bayesian mixture cure rate frailty model, while it is impossible through conventional models of survival analysis. Chemotherapy, morphology, and metastasis are the most important effective factors of short-term and long-term survival in patients with gastric cancer.