A 5-year assessment of the epidemiology and natural history of possible diabetes in remission.

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes is considered a chronic and progressive disease. The term diabetes in remission has no consensus definition and the question whether diabetes "remission" or "cure" can achieve any long-term benefits in people with type 2 diabetes remains unclear. The aim of our study was a review of our district wide diabetes population to determine the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of those who had a diagnosis of diabetes but did not meet the diagnostic criteria for diabetes at the point of assessment in 2014 and then to review their diabetes outcomes over a 5-year time frame.

Methods: In a whole population based non-interventional epidemiological study amongst 17,308 people with diabetes, we identified 991 with diet treated type 2 diabetes who met the baseline criteria for diabetes in remission (HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol (6.5%)). Over the next 5 years, 385 (39%) people had a cumulative HbA1c attainment of <48 mmol/mol (6.5%) and remained free of diabetes medication.

Results: In this erstwhile remission group only 130 (13%) were free of any vasculopathy, whilst 255 (26%) had some form of micro or macrovascular disease, of which 64 people had been without micro or macrovascular vascular complications at baseline. Only 20 people had a HbA1c consistently ≤37 mmol/mol (5.7%) who were free of diabetes vascular complications and of diabetes medication.

Conclusions: The definition of 'diabetes in remission' remains unclear most especially regarding the inclusion of baseline prevalent or incident macro or microvascular disease, the durability of potential remission is poor, and the likelihood of cure is remote.