Analysis of the Australia and New Zealand referral criteria for transfer to a liver unit for paracetamol overdose.

Objectives: Paracetamol overdose is common and can lead to fulminant hepatic failure. In cases that are not improving with standard medical therapy with N-acetylcysteine, some patients may require liver transplant. The Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) referral criteria for transfer to a liver unit have not been extensively studied for its predictive value. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ANZ referral criteria for predicting mortality in paracetamol overdose.

Methods: This study involves a retrospective analysis of patients who developed hepatotoxicity post-paracetamol overdose presenting to an Australian health service with a liver transplant unit between 2010 and 2019 and were treated with N-acetylcysteine. The primary outcome was death or transplant.

Results: Out of 983 paracetamol overdose presentations, 81 (8.2%) cases developed hepatotoxicity. Of these, 17 cases (21%) met the composite endpoint of death or transplant. The ANZ referral criteria is highly sensitive at predicting the primary endpoint of death or transplant at time of referral 100% (95% confidence interval 81-100) but had low specificity at 30% (95% confidence interval 19-42).

Conclusions: The ANZ referral criteria were highly sensitive for predicting the outcome of mortality and transplant. This is important for screening patients who may become unstable and difficult to transfer at a later stage of their admission.