One in four die from acute infectious illness in an emergency department in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa.

Background: Despite the breadth of data supporting evidence-based practice for sepsis care in high-resource settings, there are relatively few data to guide the management of sepsis in low-resource settings, particularly in areas where HIV and tuberculosis (TB) are prevalent. Furthermore, few studies had broadened sepsis parameters to include all patients with acute infectious illness or followed patients up after hospital discharge. Understanding the epidemiology and outcomes of acute infections in a local context is the critical first step to developing locally informed targeted management strategies.

Objectives: To quantify and describe the incidence of and risk factors for mortality in a cohort of patients with undifferentiated acute infectious illnesses who presented to an emergency department (ED) in the Eastern Cape region of South Africa (SA).

Methods: In this prospective cohort study, patients with suspected acute infectious illness were enrolled at a district casualty ward in Mthatha, SA, between 1 July and 1 September 2017. Demographic data, interventions, diagnostic studies and disposition were prospectively collected during the initial encounter and during the hospital stay. Follow-up was conducted both in hospital and via phone interviews 30 days after the index visit.

Results: A total of 301 patients presented to the ED with acute infectious illness during the study period, of whom 54.8% had complete 30-day follow-up. Of the study population, only 5.7% had a complete set of vital signs (heart rate, respiratory rate, blood pressure and temperature) documented. Of the cohort, 51.8% had HIV and 32.9% active or treated TB; 25.2% of patients died within 30 days. Accounting for medical history, diagnosis and ED interventions, risk of mortality was independently associated with age (odds ratio (OR) 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 - 1.06), HIV-positive status (OR 4.10; 95% CI 1.44 - 11.67) and Quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (OR 1.90; 95% CI 1.14 - 3.19) in an adjusted model. No ED interventions were protective for mortality, with intravenous fluid administration associated with increased 30-day mortality in this cohort (OR 3.65; 95% CI 1.38 - 9.62).

Conclusions: Among adults with suspected acute infectious illness in Mthatha, SA, 30-day mortality was concerningly high. Mortality was highest in patients with concomitant HIV infection. In particular, vital sign assessment to identify possible sepsis in this cohort is crucial, as it affects mortality to a meaningful extent, yet is often unavailable. Future research is needed on the management of sepsis in low-resource settings, particularly in HIV-positive individuals.