Predictors of development and persistence of musculoskeletal pain in community-dwelling older people: A two-year longitudinal study.

Aim: The aim of this prospective cohort study was to identify the predictors of the development and persistence of musculoskeletal pain (MSKP) in older people.

Methods: Participants comprised 431 community-dwelling older people aged 70+ years. Demographic, anthropometric, balance, mobility, cognitive function, psychological status and physical activity level measures were obtained at baseline. Participants were asked about the presence of MSKP in the neck/back, hip, knee/leg and/or feet at baseline and two-year follow-up. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of the development and persistence of MSKP at two-year follow-up.

Results: Of 179 participants who reported no MSKP at baseline, 84 (46.9%) reported MSKP at two-year follow-up, which was associated with a higher body mass index (odds ratio (OR) 1.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.18), more reported depressive symptoms (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.05-1.61) and lower physical activity levels (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.84-1.00) at baseline. Of 252 participants who reported MSKP at baseline, 202 (80.2%) reported MSKP at follow-up, which was associated with a slower 6-m walking time (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.08-1.49) and more reported depressive symptoms (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.09-1.78). These associations remained significant after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities and medication use.

Conclusions: This study suggests that higher body mass index, more depressive symptoms and less physical activity are predictors of developing MSKP, whereas slow gait speed and depressive symptoms are predictors of the persistence of MSKP among older people. The results highlight the importance of weight control, strategies to improve mental wellbeing and an active lifestyle for pain management among older people. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 519-524.