Survival Analysis Using Surgeon Skill Metrics and Patient Factors to Predict Urinary Continence Recovery After Robot-assisted Radical Prostatectomy.

Background: It has been shown that metrics recorded for instrument kinematics during robotic surgery can predict urinary continence outcomes.

Objective: To evaluate the contributions of patient and treatment factors, surgeon efficiency metrics, and surgeon technical skill scores, especially for vesicourethral anastomosis (VUA), to models predicting urinary continence recovery following robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP).

Design, Setting, And Participants: Automated performance metrics (APMs; instrument kinematics and system events) and patient data were collected for RARPs performed from July 2016 to December 2017. Robotic Anastomosis Competency Evaluation (RACE) scores during VUA were manually evaluated. Training datasets included: (1) patient factors; (2) summarized APMs (reported over RARP steps); (3) detailed APMs (reported over suturing phases of VUA); and (4) technical skills (RACE). Feature selection was used to compress the dimensionality of the inputs.

Outcome Measurements And Statistical Analysis: The study outcome was urinary continence recovery, defined as use of 0 or 1 safety pads per day. Two predictive models (Cox proportional hazards [CoxPH] and deep learning survival analysis [DeepSurv]) were used.

Results And Limitations: Of 115 patients undergoing RARP, 89 (77.4%) recovered their urinary continence and the median recovery time was 166 d (interquartile range [IQR] 82-337). VUAs were performed by 23 surgeons. The median RACE score was 28/30 (IQR 27-29). Among the individual datasets, technical skills (RACE) produced the best models (C index: CoxPH 0.695, DeepSurv: 0.708). Among summary APMs, posterior/anterior VUA yielded superior model performance over other RARP steps (C index 0.543-0.592). Among detailed APMs, metrics for needle driving yielded top-performing models (C index 0.614-0.655) over other suturing phases. DeepSurv models consistently outperformed CoxPH; both approaches performed best when provided with all the datasets. Limitations include feature selection, which may have excluded relevant information but prevented overfitting.

Conclusions: Technical skills and "needle driving" APMs during VUA were most contributory. The best-performing model used synergistic data from all datasets.

Patient Summary: One of the steps in robot-assisted surgical removal of the prostate involves joining the bladder to the urethra. Detailed information on surgeon performance for this step improved the accuracy of predicting recovery of urinary continence among men undergoing this operation for prostate cancer.