The shape of low-concentration dose-response functions for benzene: implications for human health risk assessment.

Are dose-response relationships for benzene and health effects such as myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) supra-linear, with disproportionately high risks at low concentrations, e.g. below 1 ppm? To investigate this hypothesis, we apply recent mode of action (MoA) and mechanistic information and modern data science techniques to quantify air benzene-urinary metabolite relationships in a previously studied data set for Tianjin, China factory workers. We find that physiologically based pharmacokinetics (PBPK) models and data for Tianjin workers show approximately linear production of benzene metabolites for air benzene (AB) concentrations below about 15 ppm, with modest sublinearity at low concentrations (e.g. below 5 ppm). Analysis of the Tianjin worker data using partial dependence plots reveals that production of metabolites increases disproportionately with increases in air benzene (AB) concentrations above 10 ppm, exhibiting steep sublinearity (J shape) before becoming saturated. As a consequence, estimated cumulative exposure is not an adequate basis for predicting risk. Risk assessments must consider the variability of exposure concentrations around estimated exposure concentrations to avoid over-estimating risks at low concentrations. The same average concentration for a specified duration is disproportionately risky if it has higher variance. Conversely, if chronic inflammation via activation of inflammasomes is a critical event for induction of MDS and other health effects, then sufficiently low concentrations of benzene are predicted not to cause increased risks of inflammasome-mediated diseases, no matter how long the duration of exposure. Thus, we find no evidence that the dose-response relationship is supra-linear at low doses; instead sublinear or zero excess risk at low concentrations is more consistent with the data. A combination of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling, Bayesian network (BN) analysis and inference, and partial dependence plots appears a promising and practical approach for applying current data science methods to advance benzene risk assessment.