Social and Clinical Determinants of COVID-19 Outcomes: Modeling Real-World Data from a Pandemic Epicenter.

Importance: As the United States continues to accumulate COVID-19 cases and deaths, and disparities persist, defining the impact of risk factors for poor outcomes across patient groups is imperative.

Objective: Our objective is to use real-world healthcare data to quantify the impact of demographic, clinical, and social determinants associated with adverse COVID-19 outcomes, to identify high-risk scenarios and dynamics of risk among racial and ethnic groups.

Design: A retrospective cohort of COVID-19 patients diagnosed between March 1 and August 20, 2020. Fully adjusted logistical regression models for hospitalization, severe disease and mortality outcomes across 1-the entire cohort and 2- within self-reported race/ethnicity groups.

Setting: Three sites of the NewYork-Presbyterian health care system serving all boroughs of New York City. Data was obtained through automated data abstraction from electronic medical records.

Participants: During the study timeframe, 110,498 individuals were tested for SARS-CoV-2 in the NewYork-Presbyterian health care system; 11,930 patients were confirmed for COVID-19 by RT-PCR or covid-19 clinical diagnosis.

Main Outcomes And Measures: The predictors of interest were patient race/ethnicity, and covariates included demographics, comorbidities, and census tract neighborhood socio-economic status. The outcomes of interest were COVID-19 hospitalization, severe disease, and death.

Results: Of confirmed COVID-19 patients, 4,895 were hospitalized, 1,070 developed severe disease and 1,654 suffered COVID-19 related death. Clinical factors had stronger impacts than social determinants and several showed race-group specificities, which varied among outcomes. The most significant factors in our all-patients models included: age over 80 (OR=5.78, p= 2.29x10) and hypertension (OR=1.89, p=1.26x10) having the highest impact on hospitalization, while Type 2 Diabetes was associated with all three outcomes (hospitalization: OR=1.48, p=1.39x10; severe disease: OR=1.46, p=4.47x10; mortality: OR=1.27, p=0.001). In race-specific models, COPD increased risk of hospitalization only in Non-Hispanics (NH)-Whites (OR=2.70, p=0.009). Obesity (BMI 30+) showed race-specific risk with severe disease NH-Whites (OR=1.48, p=0.038) and NH-Blacks (OR=1.77, p=0.025). For mortality, Cancer was the only risk factor in Hispanics (OR=1.97, p=0.043), and heart failure was only a risk in NH-Asians (OR=2.62, p=0.001).

Conclusions And Relevance: Comorbidities were more influential on COVID-19 outcomes than social determinants, suggesting clinical factors are more predictive of adverse trajectory than social factors.