Predictive Role of Child-To-Adult Blood Pressure Trajectories for Incident Metabolic Syndrome: 30-Year Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension Study.

Objective: The relationship between child-to-adult blood pressure (BP) trajectories and metabolic syndrome (MetS) is unknown. We aimed to determine the predictive role of BP trajectories for incident MetS and its components.

Methods: The prospective Hanzhong Adolescent Hypertension study began in 1987 and included 2692 participants free of MetS at baseline with at least 3 BP measurements available from 1987 to 2017.

Results: The systolic BP (SBP) trajectory patterns were grouped as normal (class 1, 18.7%), high normal (class 2, 60.3%), prehypertensive (class 3, 13.1%), stage 1 hypertensive (class 4, 5.7%), and stage 2 hypertensive (class 5, 2.2%). Compared with those in the normal group, individuals in classes 2 to 5 had significantly higher risks of MetS (all Ps < .05), and those with hypertension had more than an 8-fold higher risk of MetS (both P < .05). The fully adjusted risk ratios (RRs) of central obesity increased significantly in a stepwise manner as the SBP trajectory group increased from class 1 to class 5 (P < .05). Compared with those with a normal SBP trajectory, participants in the prehypertensive group and stage 1 and stage 2 hypertensive groups had significantly higher RRs for high-risk triglycerides after full adjustment (RR = 1.89 [1.22-2.94]; RR = 3.61 [2.16-6.02]; and RR = 3.22 [1.52-6.84], respectively).

Conclusion: Our study suggests that BP trajectories are predictive of incident MetS outcomes. Early detection of hypertension or modest elevations in BP is crucial. The stage of hypertension based on SBP level showed a greater association with central obesity.