Multimorbidity and leisure-time physical activity over the life course: a population-based birth cohort study.

Background: We aimed to test which life course model best described the association between leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and multimorbidity at age 55. We analyzed data from birth to age 55 using the database from the 1958 National Child Development Survey.

Methods: Multimorbidity was considered as the presence of more than one chronic condition. LTPA was measured through questionnaires from 1965 (age 7) to 2013 (age 55), which were applied in eight different occasions. We compared the fit of a series of nested adjusted logistic regression models (representing either the critical, accumulation or sensitive period models) with a fully saturated model. Data were reported as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results: From an eligible sample of 15,613 cohort members, 9137 were interviewed in the latest sweep (58.5%). Men were more physically active than women at ages 11, 16, and 23 (p < 0.001). LTPA every day in the week was more frequent in women than men in ages 33, 42, and 50 (p < 0.001). The prevalence of multimorbidity at age 55 was 33.0% (n = 2778). The sensitive analysis revealed that LTPA during adolescence (OR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.98) and mid adult life (age 50 and 55; OR: 0.82; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.98) have a stronger effect on the risk for multimorbidity at age 55 considering all other life stages in the model. Also, adolescence showed a critical independent effect on the risk for multimorbidity (OR: 0.82; 95%CI: 0.70, 0.97). No difference was found between those models.

Conclusions: These data support the notion of a protective physical activity "legacy" at early ages of childhood against multimorbidity at older ages. We highlight the need for LTPA promotion through intervention tailored especially on schooling and older ages in order to reduce the burden of multimorbidity.