Excess Mortality Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic-Los Angeles County, March-September 2020.

J Public Health Manag Pract

Acute Communicable Disease Control Program (Mss Traub, Haddix, Ibrahim, Foo, Itano, Lee, and Fisher, Mr Feregrino, and Drs Jarashow, Balter, and Gounder), Office of Health Assessment and Epidemiology (Dr Amoon and Ms Rollin-Alamillo), and Division of HIV and STD Programs (Ms Poortinga), Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, Los Angeles, California.

Published: April 2021

AI Article Synopsis

  • The study aimed to estimate COVID-19-related mortality in Los Angeles County by calculating excess all-cause and pneumonia, influenza, or COVID (PIC) deaths from March to August 2020.
  • Researchers analyzed vital statistics data, calculating expected deaths and comparing them to actual deaths to determine excess mortality, while also classifying deaths based on COVID-19 test results.
  • Findings revealed 7,208 excess all-cause deaths and 5,128 excess PIC deaths, closely matching the 5,160 confirmed and 323 probable COVID-19 deaths reported, indicating the surveillance method used may effectively capture COVID-19 mortality rates.

Article Abstract

Objective: To more comprehensively estimate COVID-19-related mortality in Los Angeles County by determining excess all-cause mortality and pneumonia, influenza, or COVID (PIC) mortality.

Design: We reviewed vital statistics data to identify deaths registered in Los Angeles County between March 15, 2020, and August 15, 2020. Deaths with an ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision) code for pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19 listed as an immediate or underlying cause of death were classified as PIC deaths. Expected deaths were calculated using negative binomial regression. Excess mortality was determined by subtracting the expected from the observed number of weekly deaths. The Department of Public Health conducts surveillance for COVID-19-associated deaths: persons who died of nontraumatic/nonaccidental causes within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test result were classified as confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Deaths without a reported positive SARS-Cov-2 polymerase chain reaction result were classified as probable COVID-19 deaths if COVID-19 was listed on their death certificate or the death occurred 60 to 90 days of a positive test. We compared excess PIC deaths with the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths ascertained by surveillance.

Setting: Los Angeles County.

Participants: Residents of Los Angeles County who died.

Main Outcome Measure: Excess mortality.

Results: There were 7208 excess all-cause and 5128 excess PIC deaths during the study period. The Department of Public Health also reported 5160 confirmed and 323 probable COVID-19-associated deaths.

Conclusions: The number of excess PIC deaths estimated by our model was approximately equal to the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths identified by surveillance. This suggests our surveillance definition for confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths might be sufficiently sensitive for capturing the true burden of deaths caused directly or indirectly by COVID-19.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/PHH.0000000000001344DOI Listing

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