Acute necrotising pancreatitis: measurements of necrosis volume and mean CT attenuation help early prediction of organ failure and need for intervention.

Objectives: This study explored the early predictive value of volume and mean CT density of necrosis for adverse outcomes in patients with acute necrotising pancreatitis (ANP).

Methods: A total of 155 patients with ANP who underwent CECT within 7 days of symptom onset were included. The necrosis volume, mean CT density, and modified CT severity index (mCTSI) were calculated. C-reactive protein (CRP) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels both 48 h after symptom onset were reviewed. Adverse outcomes were recorded. The predictive value of each indicator was assessed using ROC curve analysis.

Results: There were significant associations between necrosis volume and mean CT density and organ failure (OF), persistent OF (POF), and need for intervention (p < 0.001 for all). For predicting OF, the area under the curve (AUC) was significantly higher for necrosis volume than for mCTSI and BUN (AUC: 0.84 vs 0.67, p = 0.0011; 0.84 vs 0.71, p = 0.0193, respectively). For predicting POF and need for intervention, the AUCs for necrosis volume were significantly higher than those for mCTSI (AUC: 0.79 vs 0.66, p = 0.0045; 0.77 vs 0.61, p = 0.0019, respectively), but did not significantly differ from those for CRP and BUN. For predicting OF, a significantly better predictive value was achieved with mean CT density than with mCTSI (AUC: 0.79 vs 0.67, p = 0.0163). There were no significant differences in predictive value between mean CT density, CRP, and BUN.

Conclusions: The volume and mean CT density of necrosis based on CECT can provide early prediction of OF, POF, and need for intervention.

Key Points: • Compared to mCTSI, necrosis volume might be used to more accurately diagnose organ failure and persistent organ failure and might be better associated with the need for intervention. • Necrosis volume and mean CT density based on CECT are reliable quantitative predictors for organ failure, persistent organ failure, and intervention in acute pancreatitis.