Background: Besides their other roles, brain imaging and other biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) have the potential to inform a cognitively unimpaired (CU) person's likelihood of progression to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and benefit subject selection when evaluating promising prevention therapies. We previously described that among baseline FDG-PET and MRI measures known to be preferentially affected in the preclinical and clinical stages of AD, hippocampal volume was the best predictor of incident MCI within 2 years (79%sensitivity/78%specificity), using standard automated MRI volumetric algorithmic programs, binary logistic regression, and leave-one-out procedures.

Objective: To improve the same prediction by using different hippocampal features and machine learning methods, cross-validated via two independent and prospective cohorts (Arizona and ADNI).

Methods: Patch-based sparse coding algorithms were applied to hippocampal surface features of baseline TI-MRIs from 78 CU adults who subsequently progressed to amnestic MCI in approximately 2 years ("progressors") and 80 matched adults who remained CU for at least 4 years ("nonprogressors"). Nonprogressors and progressors were matched for age, sex, education, and apolipoprotein E4 allele dose. We did not include amyloid or tau biomarkers in defining MCI.

Results: We achieved 92%prediction accuracy in the Arizona cohort, 92%prediction accuracy in the ADNI cohort, and 90%prediction accuracy when combining the two demographically distinct cohorts, as compared to 79%(Arizona) and 72%(ADNI) prediction accuracy using hippocampal volume.

Conclusion: Surface multivariate morphometry and sparse coding, applied to individual MRIs, may accurately predict imminent progression to MCI even in the absence of other AD biomarkers.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9626361PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/JAD-200821DOI Listing

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