In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, the numerical solutions for the considered models are obtained. The considered models are applied to the case study of Egypt to forecast COVID-19 behavior for the second virus wave which is assumed to be started on 15 November 2020. Finally, comparisons between actual and predicted daily infections are presented.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7952136 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104018 | DOI Listing |
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Fractional stochastic models for COVID-19: Case study of Egypt.
Results Phys
April 2021
Higher Institute of Engineering, El-Shorouk Academy, P.O. 3 El-Shorouk City, Cairo, Egypt.
In this paper, COVID-19 dynamics are modelled with three mathematical dynamic models, fractional order modified SEIRF model, stochastic modified SEIRF model, and fractional stochastic modified SEIRF model, to characterize and predict virus behavior. By using Euler method and Euler-Murayama method, the numerical solutions for the considered models are obtained. The considered models are applied to the case study of Egypt to forecast COVID-19 behavior for the second virus wave which is assumed to be started on 15 November 2020.
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