The Association of the Brief Dementia Risk Index and Incident Dementia among Finnish 70-Year-Olds: A 5-Year Follow-Up Study.

Background: An accurate identification of older individuals at increased risk of developing dementia is very important. Various dementia risk prediction models have been developed, but not all models are applicable among older population.

Objectives: To examine the association of the Brief Dementia Risk Index (BDRI) and incidence of dementia among community-dwelling Finnish older adults.

Methods: Participants were community-dwelling nondemented 70-year-olds examined in 2011 (n = 943). Cox regression model with death as a competing risk was used to analyze the association of BDRI and incident dementia (ICD-10 codes F00-03 and G30) during the 5-year follow-up (n = 883).

Results: The rate of dementia incidence was 4.9% during the follow-up. Having at least moderate risk according to BDRI significantly predicted incident dementia (hazard ratio 3.18, 95% confidence interval: 1.71-5.92, p < 0.001), also after adjustment with education level (2.93, 1.52-5.64, p = 0.001). No interaction between gender and BDRI was found.

Conclusion: BDRI could be an applicable tool for identification of older individuals at increased risk of developing dementia in clinical settings.