Estimating cancer survival and prevalence with the Medical-Insurance-System-based Cancer Surveillance System (MIS-CASS): An empirical study in China.

Background: We aimed to establish a new approach for surveillance of cancer prevalence and survival in China, based on the Medical-Insurance-System-based Cancer Surveillance System (MIS-CASS).

Methods: We constructed a standard procedure for data collection, cleaning, processing, linkage, verification, analysis, and estimation of cancer prevalence and survival (including both actual observations and model estimates) by conjoint use of medical insurance claims data and all-cause death surveillance data. As a proof-of-principle study, we evaluated the performance of this surveillance approach by estimating the latest prevalence and survival for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Hua County, a high-risk region for oesophageal cancer in China.

Findings: In Hua County, the age-standardised relative 5-year survival was 39·2% (male: 36·8%; female: 43·6%) for oesophageal cancer and 33·3% (male: 29·6%; female: 43·4%) for stomach cancer. For oesophageal cancer, better survival was observed in patients of 45-64 years compared with national average estimates, and women of <75 years had better survival than men. The 5-year prevalence rate in Hua County was 99·8/100,000 (male: 105·9/100,000; female: 93·3/100,000) for oesophageal cancer and 41·5/100,000 (male: 57·4/100,000; female: 24·5/100,000) for stomach cancer. For both of these cancers, the prevalence burden peaked at 65-79 years. The model estimates for survival and prevalence were close to the observations in real investigation, with a relative difference of less than 4·5%.

Interpretation: This novel approach allows accurate estimation of cancer prevalence and survival with a short delay, which has great potential for regular use in general Chinese populations, especially those not covered by cancer registries.

Funding: The National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0901404), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626), the Taikang Yicai Public Health and Epidemic Control Fund (TKYC-GW-2020), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation Project (J200016), and the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Hospitals Authority (XXZ0204).