A nomogram to predict the incidence of permanent stoma in elderly patients with rectal cancer.

Background: Creation of a temporary diverting stoma during rectal cancer surgery is used widely to prevent undesirable outcomes related to anastomotic leakage (AL). The transition from temporary stoma (TS) to permanent stoma (PS) is a frequent outcome. Elderly patients may have a greater probability of PS. We aimed to identify risk factors of PS and developed a nomogram to predict the rate of PS for elderly patients.

Methods: We enrolled elderly patients (≥70 years) who underwent rectal cancer surgery with a TS between January 2014 and December 2017 at our hospital. We divided patients into two groups: a TS group and a PS group. We then identified the risk factors for PS and developed a nomogram to predict the possibility of PS.

Results: Of the 278 elderly patients who received a diverting stoma, 220 (79.14%) eventually underwent stoma reversal, and 58 (20.86%) had PS. The proportion of males in the PS group was significantly higher than that of the TS group (P=0.048). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (P<0.001), laparotomy (P=0.004), AL (P<0.001), and tumor recurrence (P<0.001) were significantly correlated with PS. These four factors were included to construct the nomogram. The consistency index of the nomogram was 0.833 and the model yielded an area under the curve of 0.833.

Conclusions: ASA score (≥3), laparotomy, AL, and tumor recurrence were independent risk factors for PS in elderly patients. Our nomogram exhibited moderate predictive ability.