Identifying factors increasing the risk of acquiring HIV among Egyptians to construct a consensus web-based tool for HIV risk assessment.

Background: Accurate information on HIV transmission risk is required to construct evidence-based risk reduction practices for individuals and to direct the provision of prevention strategies at the population level. HIV transmission risk assessment will help in identifying individuals at high risk of HIV infection and directing the provision of post exposure prophylaxis (PEP).

Objective: To identify the common risk factors for HIV transmission in the Egyptian community in order to construct a web-based HIV risk assessment tool.

Methods: Following a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature on HIV transmission and risk factors, we retrieved the key determinants of HIV exposure risk. In parallel, we conducted a case control study to identify the common risk factors for HIV transmission in the Egyptian community. The identified risk factors were incorporated in weighted risk scoring models to allow the quantification of the risk of HIV acquisition.

Results: There were 38 determinants associated with HIV seropositivity [people living with HIV (PLWH)] among Egyptians compared to 34 risk factors identified in our meta-analysis. All the derived scores showed high accuracy for predicting HIV infection status [sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of greater than 90.0%, (AUC = 0.998-1.000;  < .001)].

Conclusion: Key drivers of HIV transmissions can be incorporated into a risk scoring model in order to quantify the risks of HIV acquisition. Such tools can facilitate the screening of PLWH and at-risk-individuals and direct interventions to halt HIV transmission.