Detection of hidden model errors by combining single and multi-criteria calibration.

Sci Total Environ

Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, 35392 Giessen, Germany; Centre for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus Liebig University Giessen, 35392 Giessen, Germany.

Published: July 2021

AI Article Synopsis

  • Environmental models use mathematical equations to replicate landscape processes, validated through observations.
  • The study combines single and multi-criteria assessments to simulate 14 target values related to water and soil conditions, identifying common errors in both approaches that can lead to significant misinterpretations of water quality.
  • The proposed method reveals different types of errors in model parameters, emphasizing the importance of integrating observations from multiple scientific disciplines to enhance overall model accuracy.

Article Abstract

Environmental models aim to reproduce landscape processes with mathematical equations. Observations are used for validation. The performance and uncertainties are quantified either by single or multi-criteria model assessment. In a case-study, we combine both approaches. We use a coupled hydro-biogeochemistry landscape-scale model to simulate 14 target values on discharge, stream nitrate as well as soil moisture, soil temperature and trace gas emissions (NO, CO) from different land uses. We reveal typical mistakes that happen during both, single and multi-criteria model assessment. Such as overestimated uncertainty in multi-criteria and ignored wrong model processes in single-criterion calibration. These mistakes can mislead the development of water quality and in general all environmental models. Only the combination of both approaches reveals the five types of posterior probability distributions for model parameters. Each type allocates a specific type of error. We identify and locate mismatched parameter values, obsolete parameters, flawed model structures and wrong process representations. The presented method can guide model users and developers to the so far hidden errors in their models. We emphasize to include observations from physical, chemical, biological and ecological processes in the model assessment, rather than the typical discipline specific assessments.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146218DOI Listing

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

single multi-criteria
12
model assessment
12
model
9
environmental models
8
multi-criteria model
8
detection hidden
4
hidden model
4
model errors
4
errors combining
4
combining single
4

Similar Publications

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!