Changes in survival and causes of death among people living with HIV: Three decades of surveys from Tokyo, one of the Asian metropolitan cities.

Introduction: Survival among people living with HIV (PLWH) has dramatically improved in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. This is the first study in Asia to describe three decades of surveys on survival and causes of death among PLWH.

Methods: We included 1121 HIV-infected patients, categorized into three period groups according to date of first visit: 1986-1996 (Pre-ART); 1997-2007 (Early-ART); and 2008-2018 (Late-ART).

Results: Ten-year all-cause mortality has reduced from Pre-ART (49.6/1000 person-years) to Late-ART (6.3/1000 person-years). Mortality for AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs) has also reduced from Pre-ART (34.4/1000 person-years) to Late-ART (2.9/1000 person-years), and mortality for non-ADIs has reduced from Pre-ART (11.7/1000 person-years) to Late-ART (2.9/1000 person-years). In the ART-era, deaths from non-AIDS-defining malignancies and unnatural events including suicide represented the majority of non-ADI-related deaths and mortality rates of non-AIDS defining malignancies and unnatural cause event were not different between each group (3.4, 1.9 and 2.5/1000 person-years). Crude cumulative survival improved over the study period, and 10-year survival ratios of HIV-infected patients to the general Japanese population approached 1.00, from Pre-ART (0.66) to Late-ART (0.99). Even in the Late-ART period, survival remained lower in patients with a history of ADIs than in those without, but the difference in 5-year mortality between these groups has shrunk in the Late-ART compared to the Pre-ART.

Conclusions: Mortality for ADIs and non-ADIs in PLWH has reduced in the Early-ART and Late-ART. To improve survival for PLWH further, early HIV detection and treatment and good management of non-AIDS-defining malignancies and mental disorders are needed. (248/250).