Severity: Warning
Message: fopen(/var/lib/php/sessions/ci_sessionedn4jouuik2adihupu27e6dsqf7qdqnu): Failed to open stream: No space left on device
Filename: drivers/Session_files_driver.php
Line Number: 177
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
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Filename: Session/Session.php
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File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
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Message: Undefined array key "choices"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 249
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 249
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 249
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 249
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 249
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 249
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
Line: 316
Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 249
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 249
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
Severity: 8192
Message: strpos(): Passing null to parameter #1 ($haystack) of type string is deprecated
Filename: models/Detail_model.php
Line Number: 71
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/models/Detail_model.php
Line: 71
Function: strpos
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: insertAPISummary
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
Severity: 8192
Message: str_replace(): Passing null to parameter #3 ($subject) of type array|string is deprecated
Filename: helpers/my_audit_helper.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 8919
Function: str_replace
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 255
Function: formatAIDetailSummary
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Undefined array key "choices"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 256
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 256
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
Severity: Warning
Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 256
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 256
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 256
Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 256
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Undefined array key "usage"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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Backtrace:
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 257
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 257
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Undefined array key "usage"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
Line Number: 258
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 258
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Undefined array key "usage"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: Undefined array key "usage"
Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
Line: 260
Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Filename: controllers/Detail.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: _error_handler
File: /var/www/html/index.php
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Function: require_once
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Message: file_get_contents(https://...@gmail.com&api_key=61f08fa0b96a73de8c900d749fcb997acc09): Failed to open stream: HTTP request failed! HTTP/1.1 429 Too Many Requests
Filename: helpers/my_audit_helper.php
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File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
Line: 143
Function: file_get_contents
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Function: simplexml_load_file_from_url
File: /var/www/html/application/helpers/my_audit_helper.php
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Function: getPubMedXML
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Function: GetPubMedArticleOutput_2016
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: pubMedSearch_Global
File: /var/www/html/application/controllers/Detail.php
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Function: pubMedGetRelatedKeyword
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Function: require_once
Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7959400 | PMC |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008811 | DOI Listing |
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