Factors associated with the progression of gastric intestinal metaplasia: a multicenter, prospective cohort study.

Gastric cancer (GC) is usually preceded by premalignant gastric lesions (GPLs) such as gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM). Information on risk factors associated with neoplastic progression of GIM are scarce. This study aimed to identify predictors for progression of GIM in areas with low GC incidence. The Progression and Regression of Precancerous Gastric Lesions (PROREGAL) study includes patients with GPL. Patients underwent at least two upper endoscopies with random biopsy sampling. Progression of GIM means an increase in severity according to OLGIM (operative link on gastric intestinal metaplasia) during follow-up (FU). Family history and lifestyle factors were determined through questionnaires. Serum infection, pepsinogens (PG), gastrin-17 and GC-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were determined. Cox regression was performed for risk analysis and a chi-squared test for analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms. Three hundred and eight patients (median age at inclusion 61 years, interquartile range (IQR: 17; male 48.4 %; median FU 48 months, IQR: 24) were included. During FU, 116 patients (37.7 %) showed progression of IM and six patients (1.9 %) developed high-grade dysplasia or GC. The minor allele (C) on (rs11536889) was inversely associated with progression of GIM (OR 0.6; 95 %CI 0.4-1.0). Family history (HR 1.5; 95 %CI 0.9-2.4) and smoking (HR 1.6; 95 %CI 0.9-2.7) showed trends towards progression of GIM. Alcohol use, body mass index, history of infection, and serological markers were not associated with progression. Family history and smoking appear to be related to an increased risk of GIM progression in low GC incidence countries. (rs11536889) showed a significant inverse association, suggesting that genetic information may play a role in GIM progression.