: South Africa began offering medical male circumcision (MMC) in 2010. We evaluated the current and future impact of this program to see if it is effective in preventing new HIV infections. : The Thembisa, Goals and Epidemiological Modeling Software (EMOD) HIV transmission models were calibrated to South Africa's HIV epidemic, fitting to household survey data on HIV prevalence, risk behaviors, and proportions of men circumcised, and to programmatic data on intervention roll-out including program-reported MMCs over 2009-2017. We compared the actual program accomplishments through 2017 and program targets through 2021 with a counterfactual scenario of no MMC program. : The MMC program averted 71,000-83,000 new HIV infections from 2010 to 2017. The future benefit of the circumcision already conducted will grow to 496,000-518,000 infections (6-7% of all new infections) by 2030. If program targets are met by 2021 the benefits will increase to 723,000-760,000 infections averted by 2030. The cost would be $1,070-1,220 per infection averted relative to no MMC. The savings from averted treatment needs would become larger than the costs of the MMC program around 2034-2039. In the Thembisa model, when modelling South Africa's 9 provinces individually, the 9-provinces-aggregate results were similar to those of the single national model. Across provinces, projected long-term impacts were largest in Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga (23-27% reduction over 2017-2030), reflecting these provinces' greater MMC scale-up. : MMC has already had a modest impact on HIV incidence in South Africa and can substantially impact South Africa's HIV epidemic in the coming years.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/gatesopenres.13220.1 | DOI Listing |
JAMA Neurol
December 2024
Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Importance: Gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, and eclampsia are established risk factors for stroke and dementia later in life. Whether these pregnancy complications are associated with an increased risk of new-onset neurological disorders within months to years after giving birth is not known.
Objective: To explore whether gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, and eclampsia are associated with new-onset migraine, headache, epilepsy, sleep disorder, or mental fatigue within months to years after giving birth.
Int J Legal Med
December 2024
AgEstimation Project, Department of Medicine and Health Sciences "Vincenzo Tiberio", University of Molise, Campobasso, Italy.
Background: Methods for age estimation in children involve measurements of: (1) the projections of open apices and tooth heights (T), (2) the total area of the carpal bones and the epiphyses of the ulna and radius (HW), and (3) a combination of these parameters (THW). This study aimed to compare the accuracy of the original formulae for T, HW, and THW in Black South African (BSA) and White South African (WSA) samples of children and adolescents.
Materials And Methods: The sample comprised 556 subjects, 164 BSA (71 males and 93 females) and 392 WSA (171 males and 221 females) aged 6 to 16 years.
Intensive Care Med
December 2024
Department of Anaesthesiology, Critical Care and Pain, Tata Memorial Hospital, Homi Bhabha National Institute, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
Purpose: To generate consensus and provide expert clinical practice statements for the management of adult sepsis in resource-limited settings.
Methods: An international multidisciplinary Steering Committee with expertise in sepsis management and including a Delphi methodologist was convened by the Asia Pacific Sepsis Alliance (APSA). The committee selected an international panel of clinicians and researchers with expertise in sepsis management.
Arch Orthop Trauma Surg
December 2024
Medical City UNT/TCU Orthopaedic Surgery Residency Program Director, 3325 Medpark Dr, Denton, TX, 76210, USA.
Introduction: Low rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have been found in patients with isolated orthopaedic trauma below the knee. Many surgeons routinely provide chemical thromboprophylaxis in these injuries, however. This is not without inherent risks, and this remains a controversial topic in perioperative care in orthopaedic trauma.
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