Baseline epidemiology and associated dog ecology study towards stepwise elimination of rabies in Kwara state, Nigeria.

Understanding domestic dog population dynamics and ecology is crucial to any effective rabies control program. This study was conducted as part of the baseline epidemiological studies necessary for the establishment of the Kwara Rabies Rapid Alert System "KRRAS". This study aimed to determine the dog population structure of Kwara State by assessing the dog ownership, vaccination status, and prevalence of dog bites. A total of 1460 questionnaires were administered to respondents in the three senatorial zones of the state using Open Data Kit (ODK) between June 2019 to January 2020. Of the 1460 households surveyed, 293 (20.1 %) owned at least one dog with an average of 2.25 dogs per household. The male to female ratio was 1.9:1 and 79.3 % (n = 523/659) of the owned dogs were local breeds. A total of 785 dogs was enumerated (659 dogs from 293 households and 126 free-roaming dogs) and 7811 persons which resulted in a dog-human ratio of 1:9.95. The estimated dog population is 376,789 (95 % CI: 343,700 - 379,878). Only 31 % (n = 204/659) of households vaccinated their dogs against rabies. The prevalence of dog-bite was 13 % (n = 193/1460) of which only 27 % of the victims (n = 61/225) received post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Dog ownership was significantly impacted by the ethnicity of respondents. Hausa (OR: 3.76; 95 % CI: 1.15-12.4; p < 0.001) and Nupe (OR: 4.48; 95 % CI: 1.77-11.33; p < 0.001) respondents owned dogs than Yoruba respondents. The rabies vaccination status of owned dogs was significantly impacted by the level of education (OR: 5.03; 95 % CI: 1.50-16.83; p < 0.001); history of previous dog bite incidents (OR: 1.74; 95 % CI: 0.95-3.17; p < 0.001); the breed of the dog with exotic dogs being more vaccinated (OR: 2.79: 95 % 0.64-12.05; p < 0.001). Similarly, Male dogs (OR: 1.49, 95 % 1.03-2.86; p < 0.001) and partially confined dogs (OR: 1.09, 95 % 0.45-2.11, p < 0.001) were found to be vaccinated against rabies. The results of the study showed low dog vaccination coverage, and high number of free roaming dogs. Hence, a threat to public health. The low dog vaccination coverage is below the 70-80 % target recommended for herd immunity by the World Health Organization.