Why comparative epidemiological indicators suggest that New Zealand is unlikely to experience a severe opioid epidemic.

North America (i.e., the United States and Canada) and select other wealthy Commonwealth countries (e.g., Australia, the UK) have been experiencing marked 'opioid epidemics', consisting of elevated opioid use and related (e.g., mortality and morbidity) harms involving both prescription and, increasingly, illicit opioid substances. Multiple commentators have alerted to the possibility of New Zealand becoming home to a similar opioid crisis. In this article, we briefly examine and compare key system-level epidemiological indicators for New Zealand in regards to this situation and prospect. These data suggest that, comparatively, population-level (medical) opioid use, exposure and supply in New Zealand have been low and moderate, mostly involving restrained and lower-risk (e.g., short-duration, few long-acting/high-potency formulations, restricted settings) medical opioid availability, with limited over-time increases and absent the major oscillations in opioid dispensing observed elsewhere. Similarly, illicit opioids have been rather low in availability and use, and do not form primary substances in illicit drug scenes or markets. Correspondingly, opioid-related mortality in New Zealand has been somewhat increasing over-time albeit at comparably low levels, and principally involves methadone, morphine and codeine, i.e. the main opioids medically prescribed. Synthesizing the evidence, New Zealand has not featured the distinct characteristics or system-level drivers that have facilitated the opioid epidemics as have unfolded in other jurisdictions. It appears that New Zealand may have all along engaged in the more measured opioid use practices that other jurisdictions have attempted to revert to post-hoc (but largely when too late) while experiencing extensive adverse consequences related to opioids. On this basis, New Zealand provides for a worthwhile comparative case study towards more moderate opioid utilization and control entailing relatively limited collateral harms (e.g., opioid mortality) on public health compared to elsewhere. Details and characteristics of New Zealand's approach to and experience with opioids should be further examined for future and other jurisdictions' benefit.