Variability in estimated glomerular filtration rate and the risk of major clinical outcomes in diabetes: Post hoc analysis from the ADVANCE trial.

There are limited data on whether estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) variability modifies the risk of future clinical outcomes in type 2 diabetes (T2D). We assessed the association between 20-month eGFR variability and the risk of major clinical outcomes in T2D among 8241 participants in the ADVANCE trial. Variability in eGFR (coefficient of variation [CV ]) was calculated from three serum creatinine measurements over 20 months. Participants were classified into three groups by thirds of CV : low (≤6.4; reference), moderate (>6.4 to ≤12.1) and high (>12.1). The primary outcome was the composite of major macrovascular events, new or worsening nephropathy and all-cause mortality. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). Over a median follow-up of 2.9 years following the 20-month period, 932 (11.3%) primary outcomes were recorded. Compared with low variability, greater 20-month eGFR variability was independently associated with higher risk of the primary outcome (HR for moderate and high variability: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.91-1.27 and 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03-1.45, respectively) with evidence of a positive linear trend (p = .015). These data indicate that eGFR variability predict changes in the risk of major clinical outcomes in T2D.