A Simple Emergency Department-Based Score Predicts Complex Hospitalization in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Background And Aims: Thirty percent of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients hospitalized with flare require salvage therapy or surgery. Additionally, 40% experience length of stay (LOS) > 7 days. No emergency department (ED)-based indices exist to predict these adverse outcomes at admission for IBD flare. We examined whether clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic markers at presentation predicted prolonged LOS, inpatient colectomy, or salvage therapy in IBD patients admitted with flare.

Methods: Patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) or colonic involvement of Crohn's disease (CD) hospitalized with flare and tested for Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) between 2010 and 2020 at two urban academic centers were studied. The primary outcome was complex hospitalization, defined as: LOS > 7 days, inpatient colectomy, or inpatient infliximab or cyclosporine. A nested k-fold cross-validation identified predictive factors of complex hospitalization.

Results: Of 164 IBD admissions, 34% (56) were complex. Predictive factors included: tachycardia in ED triage (odds ratio [OR] 3.35; confidence interval [CI] 1.79-4.91), hypotension in ED triage (3.45; 1.79-5.11), hypoalbuminemia at presentation (2.54; 1.15-3.93), CDI (2.62; 1.02-4.22), and endoscopic colitis (4.75; 1.75-5.15). An ED presentation score utilizing tachycardia and hypoalbuminemia predicted complex hospitalization (area under curve 0.744; CI 0.671-0.816). Forty-four of 48 (91.7%) patients with a presentation score of 0 (heart rate < 99 and albumin ≥ 3.4 g/dL) had noncomplex hospitalization.

Conclusions: Over 90% of IBD patients hospitalized with flare with an ED presentation score of 0 did not require salvage therapy, inpatient colectomy, or experience prolonged LOS. A simple ED-based score may provide prognosis at a juncture of uncertainty in patient care.