Shrinkage estimation of long-term water ingestion rates.

J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol

Program in Public Health, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.

Published: November 2021

AI Article Synopsis

  • Water consumption is vital for life, but it can expose people to harmful chemicals, necessitating accurate long-term consumption estimates.
  • This study aims to estimate long-term water consumption using data from a representative sample of the US population, analyzed from the NHANES survey between 2005 and 2010.
  • The findings show that using a random effects model leads to lower estimates in mean water consumption and variability, suggesting this method could be more effective for future exposure assessments.

Article Abstract

Background: Water consumption is a necessity for human life, though it also presents an opportunity for exposure to harmful chemicals and toxins. In order to gain a better understanding of the potential levels of chronic exposure, accurate estimates of long-term water consumption are needed.

Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate long-term water consumption using a nationally representative sample of the US population.

Methods: In this study, we use a random effects model to obtain shrinkage estimates of average daily water consumption for National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) participants from 2005 to 2010, and compare to their empirical 2-day averages.

Results: Our results demonstrate that the shrinkage estimates yielded a reduction in estimated mean water consumption. The 95th percentile was reduced from 3292 to 2529 ml/day. In addition, standard deviation of water consumption for this group decreased from 1052 to 688 ml/day. Similar reductions in the mean and variance were observed stratifying by age and race.

Significance: Random effects models may provide a more accurate measure of daily water consumption and could be utilized for future exposure and risk assessments.

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Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41370-021-00300-0DOI Listing

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