Linking environmental with biological data: Low sampling frequencies of chemical pollutants and nutrients in rivers reduce the reliability of model results.

Linking environmental and biological data using ecological models can provide crucial knowledge about the effects of water quality parameters on freshwater ecosystems. However, a model can only be as reliable as its input data. Here, the influence of sampling frequency of temporal variable environmental input data on the reliability of model results when linked to biological data was investigated using Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) and species sensitivity distributions (SSDs). Large-scale biological data from benthic macroinvertebrates and matching water quality data including four metals and four nutrients of up to 559 site-year combinations formed the initial data sets. To compare different sampling frequencies, the initial water quality data sets (n = 12 samples per year, set as reference) were subsampled (n = 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 and 1), annual mean values calculated and used as input data in the models. As expected, subsampling significantly reduced the reliability of the environmental input data across all eight substances. For TITAN, the use of environmental input data with a reduced reliability led to a considerable (1) loss of information because valid taxa were no longer identified, (2) gain of unreliable taxon-specific change points due to false positive taxa, and (3) bias in the change point estimation. In contrast, the reliability of the SSD results appeared to be much less reduced. However, closer examination of the SSD input data indicated that existing effects were masked by poor model performance. The results confirm that the sampling frequency of water quality data significantly influences the reliability of model results when linked with biological data. For studies limited to low sampling frequencies, the discussion provides recommendations on how to deal with low sampling frequencies of temporally variable water quality data when using them in TITAN, in SSDs, and in other ecological models.