AI Article Synopsis
- Ecosystems' past influences their current state, and understanding these carryover effects is crucial for predicting their future dynamics.
- Vegetation growth carryover (VGC) significantly enhances seasonal plant growth in the Northern Hemisphere, outpacing the effects of both previous climate conditions and current environmental factors.
- Current ecosystem models fail to accurately account for VGC, which could lead to underestimations of northern vegetation's capacity for carbon sequestration as temperatures rise in the future.
Article Abstract
The state of ecosystems is influenced strongly by their past, and describing this carryover effect is important to accurately forecast their future behaviors. However, the strength and persistence of this carryover effect on ecosystem dynamics in comparison to that of simultaneous environmental drivers are still poorly understood. Here, we show that vegetation growth carryover (VGC), defined as the effect of present states of vegetation on subsequent growth, exerts strong positive impacts on seasonal vegetation growth over the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, this VGC of early growing-season vegetation growth is even stronger than past and co-occurring climate on determining peak-to-late season vegetation growth, and is the primary contributor to the recently observed annual greening trend. The effect of seasonal VGC persists into the subsequent year but not further. Current process-based ecosystem models greatly underestimate the VGC effect, and may therefore underestimate the CO sequestration potential of northern vegetation under future warming.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7881040 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21223-2 | DOI Listing |
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