Evaluation of heavy-duty vehicle emission controls with a decade of California real-world observations.

Over the past decade, efforts to reduce emissions of particulate matter (PM) and oxides of nitrogen (NO + NO, or NO) from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) have led to the widespread adoption of both Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs) to control PM and Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) to control NO. We evaluated the performance of DPFs and SCR with 13,327 real-world fuel-based Black Carbon (BC) and NO emission factors from 9,167 unique heavy-duty vehicles (primarily HDDVs) measured at four sites in California (two ports, two highways) from 2011 to 2018. BC emission factors have decreased by 90% during the past decade. At the same time, BC distributions have become increasingly skewed toward "high-emitters" - e.g., the portion of the HDDV fleet responsible for half of all BC emissions has decreased from ~16% to ~3%. NO emission factors have also decreased over the past decade, but by only 31%. They remain roughly five times greater than in-use thresholds.We examined changes in BC and NO emissions with engine age. BC emissions from DPF-only trucks decreased slightly but insignificantly, by 6 ± 15 mg/kg fuel per year, while for DPF+SCR trucks they increased by 5 ± 3. These changes are less than 5% of in-use thresholds. The annual increase in NO emissions with age was much greater: 1.44 ± 0.28 g/kg for older SCR trucks without on-board diagnostic (OBD) capabilities and 0.48 ± 0.35 for newer trucks with OBD, roughly 20- 50% of in-use thresholds. Paired -tests on the over 600 vehicles that were observed in multiple campaigns were consistent with these results. Observed changes in BC emissions with age were best fit with a "gross emitter" model assuming an annual DPF failure rate of 0.83 ± 0.01% for DPF-only trucks and 0.56 ± 0.01% for DPF+SCR trucks.: These observations of real-world HDV emission factors have several major implications for regulatory efforts to reduce them. The increasing importance of a relatively small number of high BC emitters suggests that widespread sampling of the on-road fleet will be necessary to identify these vehicles. On the other hand, the much more ubiquitous deterioration in NO control measures may be better addressed by incorporating on-board diagnostic systems, with telematic data transfer when possible, into inspection and maintenance programs. These NO observations also highlight the need for strengthening heavy-duty SCR durability demonstration requirements.