Trends and projections of under-5 mortality in Bangladesh including the effects of maternal high-risk fertility behaviours and use of healthcare services.

Objective: This study examines trends and puts forward projections of under-5 mortality (U5M) in Bangladesh and identifies the effects of maternal high-risk fertility behaviours and use of healthcare services.

Methods: Data from seven waves of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (1994-2014) were analyzed for trends and projections of U5M and a Chi-square (χ2) test was used to identify if there was any association with maternal high-risk fertility behaviours and use of healthcare services. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the effects of fertility behaviors and healthcare usage on the occurrence of U5M adjusting with confounders.

Results: U5M declined from 82.5 to 41.0 per 1000 livebirths during 1994-2014 and is projected to further reduce to 17.6 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. The study identified a noticeable regional variation in U5M with maternal high-risk fertility behaviours including age at birth <18 years (aOR: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.23-2.76) and birth interval <24 months (aOR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.02-2.37) found to be significant determinants. There was a 39-53% decline in this rate of mortality among women that had used antenatal care services at least four times (aOR, 0.51, 95% CI: 0.27-0.97), delivery care (aOR, 0.47, 95% CI: 0.24-0.95), and had received postnatal care (aOR, 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41-0.91) in their last birth. Cesarean section was found to be associated with a 51% reduction in U5M (aOR, 0.49, 95% CI: 0.29-0.82) compared to its non-use.

Conclusion: The Sustainable Development Goals require a U5M rate of 25 per 1000 livebirths to be achieved by 2030. This study suggests that with the current trend of reduction, Bangladesh will achieve this target before the deadline. This study also found that maternal high-risk fertility behaviours and non-use of maternal healthcare services are very prevalent in some regions of Bangladesh and have increased the occurrence of U5M in those areas. This suggests therefore, that policies and programmes designed to reduce the pregnancy rates of women that are at risk and to encourage an increase in the use of maternal healthcare services are needed.