Modeling Thermal Suitability for Reindeer ( ssp.) Brainworm ( Transmission in Fennoscandia.

The brainworm, is a nematode which causes neurological disorders (elaphostrongylosis) in reindeer ( ssp.). Favorable climatic conditions have been inferred as the cause of sporadic outbreaks of elaphostrongylosis in Norway, supported by positive associations between observed outbreaks/intensity of infection and summer temperatures in the previous years. Climate warming which results in increased transmission of therefore presents a risk to the health of semi-domesticated and wild reindeer in Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, and Finland), the health of co-grazing small ruminants, and the livelihoods of indigenous Sámi herders. As a first step toward developing climate change impact assessments for , a degree-day model was developed for larval development in a range of gastropod hosts and applied to historic weather data. Predictions were validated by statistical and qualitative comparison against historic parasitological and outbreak records. The model predicted an overall increase in thermal suitability for , which was statistically significant in the north and along the Scandinavian mountain ranges, where reindeer density is highest. In these regions annual cumulative temperature conditions are suitable for larval development within a single year, potentially changing epidemiology from a 2-year transmission cycle to a 1-year transmission cycle. This is the first mechanistic model developed for and could be used to inform veterinary risk assessments on a broad spatial scale. Limitations and further developments are discussed.