Prepartum behavior changes in dry Holstein cows at risk of postpartum diseases.

The objective of this study was to identify changes in prepartum behavior associated with the incidence of postpartum diseases in dairy cows. Multiparous Holstein cows (n = 489) were monitored with accelerometers for 3 wk prepartum. Accelerometers measured steps, time at the feed bunk, frequency of meals, lying bouts, and lying time. Postpartum health was monitored from 0 to 30 d in milk and cases of metritis, mastitis, retained placenta, displaced abomasum (DA), ketosis, and hypocalcemia were recorded. A multivariate linear mixed model was used to assess differences in behavior between diseased and not diagnosed diseased cows. A multivariate logistic regression was used to predict the occurrence of diseases. Predictors were selected using a manual backward stepwise selection process of variables until all remaining predictors had a P < 0.10. Models were submitted to a leave-one-out cross-validation process, and sensitivity, specificity, false discovery rate, and false omission rate were calculated. On average, over the 3-wk prepartum period, cows not diagnosed diseased (n = 345) took 1,613 ± 38 steps, spent 181 ± 7.1 min at the feed bunk, had 8.3 ± 0.17 meals, had 9.8 ± 0.32 lying bouts, and spent 742 ± 11.3 min lying per day. Behavior of diseased cows (n = 144) did not differ from those not diagnosed diseased. However, differences for specific diseases were observed, being significant in the week prepartum. When considering changes in behavior for only the week before calving, cows with metritis had more lying bouts (+21%), cows with DA had fewer meals (-24%) and tended to take fewer steps (-18%), and cows with ketosis had fewer meals (-22%) and spent less time at the feed bunk (-40%). Prediction models with the best outcomes were found for DA and ketosis using data of the prepartum week only. The model for DA included time at the feed bunk. Cross-validation resulted in a 80% sensitivity, 58.1% specificity, 59.2% accuracy, 91.2% false discovery rate, and 1.7% false omission rate. The model for ketosis included time at the feed bunk and number of meals. Cross-validation resulted in 64.3% sensitivity, 59.3% specificity, 59.5% accuracy, 93.0% false discovery rate, and 2.8% false omission rate. Prepartum behavior of cows affected with metritis, DA, and ketosis was different from that of cows not diagnosed with diseases. Prediction equations were able to classify cows at high or low risk of ketosis and DA and can be used in taking management decisions, but the high false discovery rates requires further refinement.