The Impact of Global Development Pathways on Food Security and Diet Quality: Results of a Global Economic Model.

This study aims to assess the impact of future global development pathways on food and nutrition security, particularly on the composition of diets considering macronutrients. For this purpose, two alternative baseline scenarios until 2030 following the narratives of shared socioeconomic pathways are simulated using a global economic model, extended to account for detailed nutrition information of different food groups taken from the FAO food balance sheets. In general, both scenarios reveal increases in energy intake for the average consumer in all regions. However, some regions remain on average below or at the recommended energy intake level, indicating that still a substantial share of the population could remain food insecure. By contrast, particularly in emerging and industrialized countries, energy intake increases substantially by increasing the consumption of meat, oils and fats, as well as sugar. As the diet in most of these countries already exceeded the recommended intake of fat and protein in 2011, the scenario results indicate further increases in overconsumption and related non-communicable diseases for the future.