Demographic, Clinical, and Prescribing Characteristics Associated with Future Opioid Use in an Opioid-Naive Population in an Integrated Health System.

Introduction: Health systems and prescribers need additional tools to reduce the risk of opioid dependence, abuse, and overdose. Identifying opioid-naive individuals who are at risk of opioid dependence could allow for the development of needed interventions.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of 23,804 adults in an integrated health system who had received a first opioid prescription between 2010 and 2015. We compared the demographic, clinical, and prescribing characteristics of individuals who later received a third opioid dispense at least 27 days later, indicating long-term opioid use, with those who did not.

Results: The strongest predictors of continued opioid use were an initial prescription dosage of 90 morphine milligram equivalence or more; prescription of extended-release opioids, rather than short-release; and being prescribed outside of a hospital setting. Patients with a third prescription were also more likely to be older than 45 years, white, and non-Hispanic and to have physical comorbidities or prior substance abuse or mental health diagnoses.

Discussion: Our findings are largely consistent with prior research but provide new insight into differences in continued opioid use by opioid type, prescribing location, ethnicity, and comorbidities. Together with previous research, our data support a pattern of higher opioid use among older adults but higher rates of diagnosed opioid abuse among younger adults.

Conclusions: By identifying population characteristics associated with continued opioid use following a first prescription, our data pave the way for quality improvement interventions that target individuals who are at higher risk of opioid dependence.