Defining early recurrence in patients with resected primary colorectal carcinoma and its respective risk factors.

Purpose: There is no evidence-based definition of early recurrence following resection of colorectal cancer. The purpose of this study is to define a point that discriminates between early and late recurrence in patients who have undergone colorectal cancer resection with curative intent and to analyze associated risk factors.

Methods: A retrospective single-center cohort study was performed at a university hospital recognized as a comprehensive cancer center, specializing in colorectal cancer surgery. Patient data were retrieved from a prospectively maintained institutional database. Included patients underwent resection for primary, non-metastatic colorectal carcinomas with curative intent between 1995 and 2010. Aims of the study were (1) to define the optimal cut-off point of recurrence-free survival based on overall survival using a minimum p value approach and (2) to identify patterns of initial recurrence and putative risk factors for early recurrence using regression models.

Results: Recurrence was diagnosed in 412 of 1893 patients. Statistical analysis suggested that a recurrence-free survival of 16 months could be used to distinguish between early and late recurrence based on overall survival (p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for early recurrence included advanced pT categories (pT3,4/ypT3,4) and positive lymph node status (pN+/ypN+). Early recurrence was independent of site of recurrence and was associated with worse prognosis.

Conclusions: Recurrence of colorectal carcinoma within 16 months after primary treatment should be labeled as "early." Tumor categories pT3,4/ypT3,4 and positive lymph node status pN+/ypN+ are predictive of early recurrence.